Saturday, September 26, 2009

#20 Iowa 9 to 10 point underdog at Happy Valley tonight: No Surprise vs. # 7 Penn State and a Joe Pa's team


Last year, Iowa was a +7 dog at home, no less. In 2000, Iowa was a +17 dog at Happy Valley, they won 26-23 in 2 OT. Iowa has won 3 of the last 4 in Happy Valley, 6 of the last 7 in the series and Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 6-2 lifetime vs. Penn State's Joe Paterno.

We don't know much about #7 Penn State, except they are 3-0 after wins vs. Akron, Syracuse and Temple. #20 Iowa is 3-0 and we do know they survived a close game with the University of Northern Iowa in the opener, 17-16. UNI is only a FCS team and in the national polls eyes, Iowa was out, after a win in the home opener. Iowa picked up wins @ Iowa State 35-3 and last week vs. Arizona 27-17 at home.

Can Iowa hold down Penn State's run game and make the Nittany Lions beat Iowa in the air? In 2007, a poor Iowa team was blasted by the Nittany Lions 27-7 behind a very strong running game. Iowa was a +3 in take aways in '07, but they had no offense vs. the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. This is a different Iowa team, now lead by QB Ricky Stanzi, who lead Iowa to the 24-23 upset win over Penn State at Kinnick in '08.

Keys to the game in Happy Valley today:
  1. Run Defense and the Line of Scrimmage.

  2. Which QB makes will limit mistakes?

  3. Which defense gives up the big plays?

  4. Does a team have to settle for Field Goals?

  5. Special teams play ...

This should be an entertaining game in front of a national television audience on ABC at 7 pm tonight CDT. Penn State is clearly favored and typically has been a +3 to +17 favorite this decade vs. Iowa at home.

By the way, the '96 Iowa team was a +10 underdog at Penn State, when Tim Dwight and company came to town. The '96 team was a -6 favorite vs. Arizona to open the season and pulled off the win over U of A by 1. Later, they pulled off the win in Happy Valley. Deja vous again for Iowa? Does the weather factor in and create an advantage for one?

Prediction:

#20 Iowa 24
#7 Penn State 22

peace

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