Iowa at Wisconsin in Big Ten play on Saturday in deadlocked series at 41 and 41

Who will get to +1 in the Iowa-Wisconsin series this weekend. Both teams have won 41 games each in this series. Another Big Ten trophy game is up in Madison on Saturday. Kickoff is at 11 am on ESPN.

Who carries off the Trophy tomorrow?

Big Ten Scoring Offense/Defense to date in conference play:

• Iowa (2-0) 25.5 on offense; 19.0 on defense


• Wisconsin (2-1) 27.3 on offense; 29.7 on defense


• Best offense Iowa has faced: Michigan; best defense Iowa has faced: Penn State


• Best offense UW has faced: Minnesota; best defense UW has faced: Ohio State

It's a little strange to watch the Big Ten Network talk about Turnover Margin in favor of the Badgers, because when you throw out the OOC and look at Big Ten conference games, which is what really matters for the Hawkeyes, Badgers and nine other Big Ten teams.

• Iowa is #1 in the Big Ten in Turnover Margin at a +3


• Wisconsin is +0.67 after three games vs. Michigan State, @ Minnesota and @ OSU


• While Wisconsin was better in the OOC in Turnover Margin, QB Scott Tolzien is at 3 interceptions, as does Iowa's QB Ricky Stanzi, who is at 3 as well


• Wisconsin has fumbled the ball more than Iowa in '09

Pass Efficiency is an interesting statistic on offense and defense.

• Iowa's defense is #1 in pass efficiency, while the offense is #9 in the conference


• Wisconsin's defense is #9 in pass efficiency, while offense is #5 in the conference


• So, it appears it is weakness vs. weakness, while Iowa is on offense


• It may be Iowa's strength, to a UW passing attack that has improved over '08, but just how far have they come

Iowa has the second longest winning streak in FBS. #1 Florida has the longest winning streak in FBS right now. Iowa has won 2 of the last 3 games in Madison, though UW beat Iowa 17-13 in '07. Iowa lost 7-27 in '07 at Penn State. This season, the Hawkeyes picked up a big victory 21-10 in Happy Valley. Iowa enters the game 2-0 on the season in road game. The Hawkeyes beat rival Iowa State in Ames 35-3 this season to win the Cy-Hawk series trophy. Can Iowa keep the win streak going this weekend in Madison?

Ringing up the First Downs in conference play.

• Wisconsin leads the Big Ten on offense in First Downs


• Iowa leads the Big Ten on defense in allowing the fewest First Downs per game


• Wisconsin's defense ranks fifth, while Iowa's offense ranks 10Th


• Wisconsin ran up some outstanding stats in Columbus last weekend on offense and the defense was favorable. But, UW lost to OSU 13-31 fueled by Pick 6s and allowing a special teams touchdown

The Red Zone is always on the mind of coordinators and measuring production of teams.

• Wisconsin's offense ranks #6, while the defense ranks #5 in the conference


• Iowa's offense ranks #8, while the defense ranks #9


• Iowa's defense gave up their first rushing touchdowns of the season vs. Michigan last week


• It will be an interesting chess match between rivals Kirk Ferentz and Bret Bielema, who served under Ferentz as an assistant at Iowa before moving onto Kansas State

There are some very good conference performers who are expected to take the field on Saturday in Madison.

• #1 rusher RB John Clay for Wisconsin; Iowa's RB Adam Robinson ranks #5


• Wisconsin TE Garrett Graham is an outstanding senior; while Iowa's senior TE Tony Moeaki has had two outstanding games this season, including national honors as the top TE performer for Week 6, in helping lead Iowa to a 27-25 win over Michigan


• Iowa's WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos enters the game as the top WR statistically


• The battle of a pair of junior QBs will feature Iowa's Ricky Stanzi, who has been down, with 3 Pick 6s this season, but still has lead Iowa to a 6-0 record thus far. UW's Scott Tolzien is in his first season as a starter for the Badgers and has them 5-1 at this point, after a 3-3 mark in '08


• Iowa PK Daniel Murray leads the conference in scoring and tied for #1 in field goals made


• Iowa PR Colin Sandeman is #1 in punt returning


• Iowa LBs Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter are 1-2 in tackles, while third LB AJ Edds is also among the Top 20 in the conference in tackles.


• Wisconsin freshman LB Mike Taylor leads the Badgers and is #23 in the conference


• Wisconsin DE O'Brien Schofield is #1 in sacks and tackles for loss in the conference


• Iowa has several player makers on defense forcing fumbles and picking up INTs


• Iowa DE Broderick Binns is among the top defenders in the conference breaking up passes from is defensive line position with his long arms

Special teams will be an interesting area to watch in Madison on Saturday. Iowa's success under Kirk Ferentz has been fueled pretty heavily over the past ten plus years with strong special teams. Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema takes the role personally with the Badger special teams. This area of the game could be huge in determining the outcome of the game. Iowa has fueled both wins in the Big Ten with better field position than their opponents.

peace

Four-Year Big Ten Standings: Where are teams likely headed in the Conference in Football in '09

Lindy Sports always publishes it's "Four-Year Standings" and the 2009 Big Ten Preview is no different (page 82). "Every team in the league has been to a bowl in the past four seasons" in the Big Ten Conference the magazine points out. Lindy Sports points out that the wealth in the conference is held in Columbus with the Ohio State Buckeyes (2 outright, 2 shared titles in 4 years). The only team showing a glimmer of wealth has been Penn State Nittany Lions, with two shared conference titles ('05 and '08) over the past 4 years.

1. Ohio State (20-3 in the conference) - clearly the PROGRAM in the Big Ten Confernece, but nationally Buckeyes' BCS woes in the title games ('06 and '07) have given the Big Ten a bad mark nationally.


2. Penn State (23-9) - Joe Pa isn't getting any younger and the Hawkeyes knocked out the Nittany Lions BCS title hopes in '08. Can the Nittany Lions make another run in '09 and get over the hump in sharing titles with the Buckeyes?


3. Wisconsin (20-12) - Lindy's points out "From 7-1 in 2008 to 5-3 to 3-5; turnaround in order?" But, does coach Bret Bielema have the Mojo in Year 4 with his own troops? Look at where his move to K-State prior to Madison lead that program's discipline and success.


4. Michigan (20-12) - Coach Rich Rodriguez hit rock bottom after Year 1 at 2-6 in Ann Arbor! Will Rodriguez enjoy a bowl season like year two at his previous gig?


5. Iowa (18-16) - Iowa finished 5-3 in '08 and in '05, after a strong three year run from '02 to '04. Is Iowa headed into another strong upswing that coach Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes enjoyed before?


6. Northwestern (15-17) - Coach Pat Fitzgerald lead the Wildcats to the Alamo in '08... which isn't the Rose, but a good direction, none the less, for the boys from Evanston.


7. Purdue (13-18) - Coach Danny Hope brings "Hope" to Purdue in the post-Joe Tiller era!


8. Michigan State (12-20) - Coach Mark Dantonio has lead the Spartans to two straight bowls in his first two seasons at the helm in East Lansing. Spartans are moving up!


9. Minnesota (10-22) - Despite the record, the Golden Gophers have been to 3 bowls in 4 years... will coach Tim Brewster's third season continue the bowl dates in year one of a school's new outdoor on-campus stadium?


10. Illinois (10-22) - Four years under coach Ron Zook has earned the Fighting Illini one Rose Bowl trip... "Was 2007 BCS season just an aberration?" Lindy asks!


11. Indiana (8-24) - Coach Bill Lynch lead the Hoosiers to their first bowl, since 1993, but... "Was 2007 bowl season just an aberration?" Lindy asks!

Lindy's says "Tell the BCS to save a seast for the Buckeyes... again." Can one real argue with that call in the Big Ten Conference? 2009 would make it five for five in the BCS for Ohio State. On the Rivals Network, the free board on the Ohio State site asks the question: Biggest Challange in the Big Ten? Right now, it may be the Buckeyes themselves... coach Jim Tressel returns 5 starters on offense, 7 starters on defense and must break in a new punter. Lindy's ranks Terrelle Pryor the conference's top QB

Lindy's says "Watch for Joe Paterno in front of the thick pack of Big Ten teams scuffling for second place." Looking at the Nittany Lions conference schedule, getting off the blocks fast happened in '05 and '08, but that was not the case in '06 and '07 where Joe Pa's teams started 0-1 and 0-2, respectively. Joe Pa returns 5 starters on offense, 4 on defense and must break in a new plackkicker, which is always interesting in close games. Lindy's ranks the Penn State linebackers #1 in the conference.

PSU, Iowa and Illinois would each appear to need strong starts to be contenders in '09. Of course, fast starts are always important in conference play!

Lindy's says "This program seems to be on the rise again, and this year it could reach even higher." The Spartans return 7 starters on offense, 8 on defense and both kickers, so they have a good base to draw upon. But, with their top QB and RB gone... leadership will be tested for Dantonio's Spartans. Lindy's ranks the Spartans linebackers #2 in the conference.

Lindy's says "In the last year of a closing window, Illinois will treat its fan base to another exciting season." The Fighting Illini return 8 starters on offense, 5 on defense and both kickers. Coach Zook is questioned for his execution, but this is a team that walked into Columbus in '07 and pulled off a victory, but the defense remains a big question, while the offense should continue to show improvement. As mentioned, a good start in the conference is important for the Fighting Illini. Lindy's ranks the Fighting Illini receivers #1 in the conference.

Lindy's says "The schedule guarantees enough wins for a bowl -- enough to keep fans off Bielema's back? The Badgers are a quarterback away from being a dangerous team in the Big Ten? Further, the defense has some holes to fill in '09. Wisconsin returns 6 starters on offense, 5 on defense and both kickers. The Badgers special teams need to step up to the potential many feel they have. While Army1 on the Rivals Network will disagree, but they are overrated in this category. Coach Bielema personally oversees special teams... will the unit mirror the coach's success in '09? Lindy's ranks the Badgers special teams #1, despite comments of work needed by both kickers.

Lindy's says "Unfortunately, the scheduling gods have set up some "road" blocks for the Hawkeyes this year." Iowa returns 6 starters on offense, 8 on defense and both kickers. The success under Kirk Ferentz starts typically in the trenches. The interior lines on both sides must replace two starters each. This is the key for Iowa in '09 and they have returning letterwinners back to fill those positions, unlike '05, when two freshmen had to step up at DT. Lindy's ranks Iowa's offensive line #1 in the conference.

Lindy's says "Middle of the pack will not satisfy anybody, but for now, it's all they get." Michigan returns 10 starters on offense, 5 starters on defense and must break in a new placekicker. The new starter on offense is at quarterback and true freshman Tate Forcier is slated by many. Lindy's points out he is "accurate and confident, but still a freshman." The O-Line and D-Line should provide Rodriguez something to build from in '09. The finale in Ann Arbor hosting Ohio State at season's end may get interesting for the Wolverines... it will be the 4oTh anniversary of Bo's 24-12 win over Hayes and the Buckeyes! Lindy's ranks the Wolverines running backs #1 in the conference.

Lindy's says "The Cats may sneak into a bowl again." Coach Pat Fitzgerald will likely continue to earn respect for the Wildcats in '09. Ironically, Lindy's web site is picturing Ohio State's Jim Tressel on the Northwestern Football page. Coach Fitzgerald returns 5 offensive starters, 8 on defense and must break in new placekicker. Wildcats don't play Ohio State nor Michigan in conference play in '09. Lindy's ranks Northwestern's secondary #1 in the conference.

Lindy's says "Tim Brewster is turning his ship around... but there is still much work to be done." Yes, Brewster is literally turning the offense and defense around replacing his coordinators on both sides. The Minnesota offense will dump the spread for a two-back set, coming off a 55-0 loss in the final Big Ten game and last game in the Metrodome. The vipe is good for the fan base with the new stadium, but will the play on the field hold their interest in '09? Minnesota returns 9 starters on offense, 8 on defense and must replace both kickers. Lindy's ranks Minnesota's receivers #3 in the conference, behind the Fighting Illini and Wolverines.

Lindy's says "Unfamiliar territory for Purdue fans... can Boilers stay ahead of Hoosiers?" In comes Hope, that is new coach Danny Hope, who was Joe Tiller's O-Line coach, when the Boilermakers won a share of the Big Ten in '00 and a trip to the Rose Bowl. Purdue returns 5 starters on offense, 7 on defense and both kickers. Quarterback play of late has been troublesome for the Boilermakers and discipline has been down in West Lafayette as the Joe Tiller's output declined. No Iowa nor Penn State on the Boilermakers schedule for '09. Lindy's doesn't rank Purdue in the Top half of the conference in any of the position rankings, but still out of the cellar.

Lindy's says "No bowl for Hoosier fans this year. It could be worse, but not much." The Hoosiers return 6 starters on offense, 9 starters on defense, and must break in a new placekicker. Defense could be their strength as coach Bill Lynch places a greater emphasis there. Lindy's ranks the Hoosiers defensive line #1 in the conference.

Lindy's has some good information in the 2009 Big Ten preview, but they certainly have some interesting predictions, rankings and comments too.

peace

Gene Chizik to Auburn; Good news for the Cyclone football program

Gene Chizik appears to be a good, young head football coach. In two years at Iowa State University, he finished 5-19 overall record (2-14 Big 12).

Of course, Mr. Chizik was 3-9 overall in year one (2-6 Big 12) for the Cyclones. This year, with a several weaknesses and lack of experience in various areas, the Cyclones compiled a 2-10 overall record (0-8 Big 12). While many in the Cyclone fan base were looking for signs of improvement in '08; talent was lacking, especially on defense. Of course, Chizik's background in on the defensive side of the ball.

Scanning his coaching staff, he looked like he was in the Sun Belt conference, not in Ames, Iowa, coaching a Big 12 team. From my vantage point, it appeared that Gene Chizik isn't the right fit for a program north of the Mason-Dixon Line. His heart is clearly in the South. As ISU athletic director Jamie Pollard pointed out.

"Auburn's interest in Gene speaks to his (Chizik's) reputation,"
Pollard said. "We saw that same potential in Gene two years ago. He is an
outstanding football coach, tremendous recruiter and inspiring leader. When your
organization has talented staff members, other schools express interest in their
services."

Stepping up to Auburn, in the SEC, does appear to be a tall order for a guy who has finished 5-19 in two years of head coaching at Iowa State. As a defensive coordinator, Chizik helped build undefeated programs at Texas (2005) and at Auburn (2004).

A dream job came true for Gene Chizik this weekend. But, for Iowa State, they get rid of a poor fit. Hindsight is always 20/20. For the ISU Cyclones, like Bump Elliott, during the 1970s at the University of Iowa; AD Pollard will have an opportunity to make the right choice this time.

It will be interesting to see, if AD Pollard jumps out of the box? After serving as an assistant at the University of Wisconsin as an athletic administrator, Jamie Pollard became athletic director at Iowa State. Of the four head football coaches that Pollard's experience would likely draw from, all are from the defensive side of the football, being DC before being hired as head coaches.

Barry Alvarez (his former boss at UW)

Bret Bielema (current HC at UW)

Dan McCarney (who Pollard let go at ISU)

Gene Chizik (DC at Texas when hired)

Will Jamie Pollard consider an offensive minded coach to replace Gene Chizik? After the accomplishments of Dan McCarney at ISU, the difference may be found in an offensive prospective. Look at the success of Dr. Tom Osborne or Hayden Fry. Both offensive minded, even, Bill Snyder at Kansas State was a former OC.

Further, ties to the State of Iowa or old Big Eight schools may wise to apply for the job. Look for someone who clearly will be a better fit north of the Mason-Dixon Line Mr. Pollard!

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What are we going to eat: Hawkeyes plan on Badger meat

The Battle of the Heartland Trophy today at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.

Iowa Hawkeyes (4-3, 1-2 Big Ten)

vs.

Wisconsin Badgers (3-3, 0-3 Big Ten)

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz vs. former Iowa player/assisitant and now Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema, with Bielema going for third straight over his alma mater.

Last year, Iowa competed well at Wisconsin, but the more consistent offense and strong Badger team won 17-13 in the four quarters of play. Wisconsin's QB Tyler Donovan, who lead the Badgers to 2-0 the past two years vs. Iowa has graduated.

Iowa's offesne in '07 was the weakest in the Big Ten. The return of RB Shonn Greene and the elevation of QB Ricky Stanzi to starter has improved Iowa vastly over the '07 edition. Wisconsin's offense has been inconsistent in '08.

Finding a QB has been important for both programs in '08. It appears Iowa has found one in Ricky Stanzi. Wisconsin has been inconsistent with Allan Evridge under center, so will it be Everidge or will Dustin Sherer make his first start. Tyler Donovan's first start was at Iowa, two years ago, leading the Badgers to a 24-21 win over Iowa to close out Iowa's Big Ten season at Kinnick.

Run defense has been good for Iowa this season. Special teams overall have improved.

The Badgers can't be taken lightly, especially with the Heartland Trophy on the line. But, with questions at QB, a young coach (third season, but a season where more of his talent must shine), and some inexperience at key positions, like at kicker and punter, on the road... conventional wisdom favors the home team.

Field position, run defense, miscues and turnovers will be huge in this game. In many ways, other than the game being in Iowa City, the game may be more of a toss up. Does a disappointing off the field distraction hurt Iowa? Off the field distractions hurt Iowa vs. Western Michigan in '07, so does Iowa keep it's focus?

Prediction:

Iowa Hawkeyes 20

Wisconsin Badgers 13

peace