Preseason College Football Predictions: the Good, the Bad and the Ugly!

The 2013 College Football season will kick off on Thursday, August 29th, with the 5 p.m. CT kick off on ESPN of North Carolina @ South Carolina.  Plenty of good games in Week 1 to look forward to, including a top FCS vs. FBS matchup on Saturday night, when defending FCS #1 North Dakota State @ Kansas State, with a 7:30 p.m. CT on the new Fox Sports 1 channel.

Many will suggest that Phil Steele has the best publication for preseason previews, but Stassen suggests otherwise lately, when it comes to Phil Steele's predictions.  However, for overall information, Phil Steele is among the best.  A must buy for the College Football junkie!  Lindy's has been #1 the past three seasons with preseason prediction accruacy from 2010-2013, followed by Athlon Sports, then Phil Steele.

The #1 publication for 2012 for accuracy was new publication Compu-picks.  However, we may have to disagree with them on at least one of the preseason headlines for 2013:

Why Alabama is the national title favorite yet again;

Why Texas Christian will be the surprise team of 2012;

Why Florida will be the disappointment of 2013;

Why you’d have to be insane to put Louisville in your top 10;

Why you’d have to be insane to keep Oklahoma State out of your top 20;

Why Stanford will be worse than you think;

Why Ole Miss will be better than you think;

Why West Virginia will be a surprise cellar dweller;

Why Indiana will surprisingly escape the cellar;

Why Kansas State is in for a big decline;

Why Colorado will be a lot better (but still lousy)

Both Compu-picks and Phil Steele (#11) are downgrading Stanford, but if defense wins championships, Stanford may be a team to keep high entering into 2013, not moving down the Top 25.  Stanford is strong in the defensive line, linebacker and secondary corps entering into 2013.  Also, Stanford is solid in the offensive line heading into 2013, as well.  Look for coach David Shaw to have Stanford in the hunt in 2013.

Alabama has certainly shown how importance championship caliber defense is in the pursuit of a BCS Title Game Championship.  The Crimson Tide remain the team to beat in 2013, but Stanford is a good candidate for #2 this season.  A look at Cidsports Preseason Top 5 compared to Early Picks:

1. Alabama Crimson Tide are winner of 3 out of 4 BCS title games!
2. Stanford Cardinal seeking 4th BCS bowl game in past 4 years!
3. Oregon Ducks have played in 4 straight BCS bowls and '10 BCS title game!
4. Ohio State Buckeyes are coming off probation and 12-0 record in '12!
5. Georgia Bulldogs last BCS bowl was during '07 in Sugar!

After the Top 5, the 6-10, 11-20 and final 5 in the Top 25 will be very interesting in 2013.

Phil Steele still loving Florida State with a #3 preseason rating, after preseason #1 last year;

Phil Steele says Texas #4, after 9-4 record and #19 AP last year;

TSN like Florida at #4 over Georgia #12, don't see it;

Is Southern Cal worth of #6 Phil Steele, coming off 7-6 record in '12, earn it;

USA Today likes Boise State #6 this preseason, after 11-2 record, #18 in AP;

Only Phil Steele likes #7 Louisville with a single digit ranking, see above;

USA Today likes #9 Nebraska, despite 5 straight 4-loss seasons under Bo Pelini;

#12 Virginia Tech per Phil Steele, but no others early agree;

USA Today giving Bill Snyder and Kansas State a little love at #24, see above;

TSN is the only one suggest Ole Miss #25 is ready for Top 25 statis, see above;

Any of the early preseason magazines missed on Notre Dame (QB Everett Golson's suspension)

If you like FCS vs. FBS college football match ups in 2013, there will be 110 games for the 2013 season.  With 12 regular season games generally in 2013 for each FBS program, here are the Top 15 games for the season between FCS vs. FBS programs, using 2012 Sagarin Ratings:

1. Kansas State vs. North Dakota State (35)
2. Texas A&M vs. Sam Houston State (63)
3. Florida vs. Georgia Southern (72)
4. Nebraska vs. South Dakota State (79)
5. Oregon State, Toledo vs. Eastern Washington (88)
6. SMU vs. Montana State (90)
7. Iowa State vs. Northern Iowa (92)
8. Colorado vs. Central Arkansas (94)
9. Indiana, Purdue vs. Indiana State (95)
10. Baylor vs. Wofford (96)
11. Michigan State vs. Youngstown State (97)
12. Colorado State, Fresno State vs. Cal Poly (99)

The Iowa Hawkeyes are under the radar, after an awful 4-8 season in '12.  Could Iowa be prime for a rebound and surprise in the Big Ten in '13?  The Hawkeyes don't play Indiana, Illinois or Penn State in conference play.  USA Today #23 Northern Illinois is the season opener for the Hawkeyes on August 31. 

Seniors are expected to be the backbone of the University of Iowa football team each fall. In 2013, the Hawkeyes' senior linebacking corps of James Morris, Christian Kirksey (#20 pictured) and Anthony Hitchens is ready to do its part.
 

peace



Orange Bowl: Iowa vs. Georgia Tech: A look at the match up on Tuesday

The BCS got it right matching Iowa vs. Georgia Tech, two 10-2 teams, in the 2010 Orange Bowl.

Like the Rose Bowl, this should be one of the better bowl match ups, as should the Fiesta Bowl, with TCU vs. Boise State on Monday night. While it was not likely known at the time, but with the Urban Meyer saga, it was poetic to have Florida vs. Cincinnati in the final BCS match up. Of course, Brian Kelly's bolt to Notre Dame, didn't set up things well for the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Back to Iowa-Georgia Tech, just how good of bowl game will this be?

The last time Iowa was in the Orange Bowl, it was all USC, after halftime, with the Trojans cruising to a 38-17 rout in the 2003 Orange Bowl. But, remember, it was a 10-10 game at halftime. The Hawkeyes, like Penn State and Ohio State in the 2010 Capital One and 2010 Rose, respectively, had to settle for field goals in those bowl games. Iowa should have likely had 21 points in the first half, the last time around in the Orange Bowl, but they didn't get it done and went into the half with USC knotted at 10-10.

Unlike Penn State and Ohio State, it would appear Iowa can't settle for field goals in this year's Orange Bowl. Georgia Tech has too good of offense. Like USC in 2003, it is critical to get touchdowns, not field goals, when you are in the red zone.

What would have been, had Iowa lead 21-10 vs. USC in 2003 at halftime?

Maybe, it would been a far more competitive game, like every other bowl game under Kirk Ferentz. Of course, South Carolina wasn't competitive last year, in Iowa's bowl blow out win in the 2009 Outback Bowl. Can Iowa bounce back from the long layoff again in 2010?

So, what are we likely going to see in the 2010 Orange Bowl?

Two well coached football teams, with each team happy to be in Miami, with desires of earning their first BCS bowl win? Iowa and Georgia Tech both have had success and shortcomings in major bowls, but success hasn't been late for either program in the top flight bowls. Actually, Georgia Tech has a bowl draught going, when it comes to winning.

Entering the 2009 regular season, Phil Steele had Iowa #20, with the following preseason comment ...

"Last year I had Iowa #34, which was higher than any other magazine and they
finished #20 coming off a 6-6 non-bowl year. This year they have a great back 7
on defense with my #5 LBs and #11 DBs and I rate their D #8 overall. They do
have to play Ohio State and Penn State on the road (Michigan
State and Wisconsin also) but are a stronger team."

In another section of the magazine, Steele compared Iowa to the 2008 Alabama team. In many ways, Iowa has played like the 2008 Alabama team, falling short at the end of the season, like Alabama in '09.

What did Phil Steele have to say about Georgia Tech?

"28. Georgia Tech: Tech showed LY that they could play with anyone knocking
off 3 ranked teams and that was the first year of HC Paul Johnson's systems.
They have 18 starters back and will have one of the top offenses in the
FBS?"

By the way, last season, Georgia Tech lost its bowl game 3-38 to LSU in the Chick-fil-A. Of course, more is at stake in Miami on Tuesday night.

How does that outcome impact the 2010 Orange Bowl?

Georgia Tech is playing in their 13Th straight bowl game, but has not won a bowl, since 2004. Tech won the Champs Sports Bowl 51-14 over Syracuse.

How much does the senior class of Georgia Tech want to go out a winner?

This could be huge as we have seen with other programs during bowl games. While the strength of each team is Georgia Tech's offense and Iowa's defense, the other phases of the game deserve attention in the keys to the game.

The key to the 2010 Orange Bowl is Iowa's offense or Georgia Tech's defense, for that matter. We already know the strengths of each team, as mentioned. Of course, one cannot discount special teams play in bowl games. But, like the Ohio State - Oregon game in the 2010 Rose Bowl, the ability of the Big Ten teams to be successful on offense can be a real key in defending and taking away an opponent's high-powered attack.

Iowa rolled in the 2009 Outback Bowl with a 31-10 win over South Carolina. The Iowa offense with QB Ricky Stanzi was at full trottle for much of the game. Stanzi had his coming out party of sorts, after starting 2009 as one of two co-starters.

Just how good will Iowa's Stanzi be in the 2010 Orange Bowl?

Will he be rusty from the two month lay off? Is he fully recovered? Like Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor, the QB position has had some questions throughout the season. For Stanzi at Iowa, it has been turnovers. Before the injury vs. Northwestern, Stanzi was leading the nation with interceptions as a starting quarterback. He entered the game at 9-0 though.

Like the Ohio State-Oregon (Rose) and Penn State-LSU (Capital One) bowl games, we expect this game to be just as strong of match up with Iowa-Georgia Tech.

Will it be true in the 2010 Orange Bowl?

Georgia Tech and Iowa are both young teams, to a degree. Who's senior leadership will step up farther in the 2010 Orange Bowl?

Will it be senior leadership that is the difference in the 2010 Orange Bowl?

Right now, we think Georgia Tech is right to be a 4 point favorite over Iowa. However, Iowa is very dangerous as a underdog traditionally. The game at Penn State on the East Coast in prime time was a coming out party for Iowa. Will the Orange Bowl continue Iowa's coming out at the national level?

Who will have the upper hand, Iowa as an underdog or the ACC Champion as a favorite?

For those traveling or already in South Beach, have a safe and enjoyable Orange Bowl. It wll be interesting to see if this is the next win in the Kirk Ferentz era? Kirk Ferentz is completing his eleventh season at Iowa and a BCS win is missing from the resume.

By the way, Georgia Tech is 22-15 in bowl games, but they are not typically in BCS bowls. This is the first major bowl for Georgia Tech, since the 1966 loss to Florida in the Orange Bowl.

Georgia Tech has played in multiple Sugar and Orange Bowls and they even have one win in their only visit to the Rose Bowl in 1928. Georgia Tech beat Cal, as Iowa did in the past in the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl was Georgia Tech's first bowl game and first bowl win. By the way, Tech has never lost in the Sugar.

Georgia Tech is 2-2 vs. Iowa common opponents in bowl games. Georgia Tech beat Michigan State in the 1985 All-American and won in 1972 vs. Iowa State in the Liberty. The two losses bowl games vs. common opponents were against fellow a fellow Black & Gold in the 1978 Peach, losing to Purdue. Georgia Tech also played Penn State back in the 1961 Gator and lost.

Could three be an unlucky charm for Georgia Tech on Tuesday night? Will Iowa beat Tech for their third loss in the Orange Bowl hisotry to drop to .500 in the Orange Bowls at 3-3?

Will Iowa make it five straight bowl losses for Georgia Tech with a win in the 2010 Orange Bowl?

On Iowa! Knock or Beat the heck out of Tech! was seen on a local digital sign on First Ave. East in Cedar Rapids.

Iowa's coach Kirk Ferentz and Georgia Tech's coach Paul Johnson are two of the better head coaches in College Football right now. Both were head coaches were previously in the FCS at one time, before finally landing jobs in the FBS. Of course, Coach Johnson had more success in the FCS, than Coach Ferentz. Ferentz spent time in the NFL, before landing at Iowa.

None of that really matters. For the players, Iowa's 2003 visit to the Orange Bowl likely doesn't matter too, but it likely did help the Iowa coaching staff some heading into South Beach.

It should be an outstanding match up and Tuesday night on FOX. Should be must see TV, if you are a College Football fan.

peace