#20 Iowa 9 to 10 point underdog at Happy Valley tonight: No Surprise vs. # 7 Penn State and a Joe Pa's team

Last year, Iowa was a +7 dog at home, no less. In 2000, Iowa was a +17 dog at Happy Valley, they won 26-23 in 2 OT. Iowa has won 3 of the last 4 in Happy Valley, 6 of the last 7 in the series and Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz is 6-2 lifetime vs. Penn State's Joe Paterno.

We don't know much about #7 Penn State, except they are 3-0 after wins vs. Akron, Syracuse and Temple. #20 Iowa is 3-0 and we do know they survived a close game with the University of Northern Iowa in the opener, 17-16. UNI is only a FCS team and in the national polls eyes, Iowa was out, after a win in the home opener. Iowa picked up wins @ Iowa State 35-3 and last week vs. Arizona 27-17 at home.

Can Iowa hold down Penn State's run game and make the Nittany Lions beat Iowa in the air? In 2007, a poor Iowa team was blasted by the Nittany Lions 27-7 behind a very strong running game. Iowa was a +3 in take aways in '07, but they had no offense vs. the Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. This is a different Iowa team, now lead by QB Ricky Stanzi, who lead Iowa to the 24-23 upset win over Penn State at Kinnick in '08.

Keys to the game in Happy Valley today:

1. Run Defense and the Line of Scrimmage.


2. Which QB makes will limit mistakes?


3. Which defense gives up the big plays?


4. Does a team have to settle for Field Goals?


5. Special teams play ...

This should be an entertaining game in front of a national television audience on ABC at 7 pm tonight CDT. Penn State is clearly favored and typically has been a +3 to +17 favorite this decade vs. Iowa at home.

By the way, the '96 Iowa team was a +10 underdog at Penn State, when Tim Dwight and company came to town. The '96 team was a -6 favorite vs. Arizona to open the season and pulled off the win over U of A by 1. Later, they pulled off the win in Happy Valley. Deja vous again for Iowa? Does the weather factor in and create an advantage for one?

Prediction:

#20 Iowa 24
#7 Penn State 22

peace

Week 3: Iowa vs. Arizona at Kinnick Stadium, ABC/ESPN2 @ 2:30 pm

It's Game Day Iowa style, with the University of Arizona, lead by two former Hawkeyes with head coach Mike Stoops and his defensive coordinator brother, Mark, headed back to their alma mater to face the '09 Iowa Hawkeyes. The Hawkeyes and the Wildcats both enter Kinnick with 2-0 records.

(picture - Iowa's Tim Dwight vs. Arizona back in the '90s the last time the Wildcats visited Kinnick to face the Hawkeyes)

Iowa's offense

• Junior Ricky Stanzi has had two slow starts, will game 3 be a charm?
• Running backs Adam Robinson (rs-Fr.) and Brandon Wegher (true Fr.) appear 1-2 entering Week 3 ... will Jeff Brinson (rs-Fr.) see a couple more carries too?
• Iowa has a nice mix at WR and TE in '09 developing
• Does Iowa's offensive line lead the Big Ten in '09 - good test today
• PK Daniel Murray appears to be carrying the full load this year

Iowa's defense

• The defensive line will be tested by U of A's run game, which DC Norm Parker often finds a way to take away, whether it be PSU in '09 or other programs making their way to Kinnick
• The linebackers are looking forward to this one, absent a spread flare for a change
• The secondary loves to pick the ball lately ... will it continue today?
• Iowa's punter Ryan Donahue is one of the best weapons in Black & Gold

Key's to the game

1. Control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football
2. Win the turnover game
3. Get on the Wildcats early, which points to both Stanzi and the run defense

Prediction:

#20 Iowa 24
Arizona 20

Final thoughts: The U of A are 0-4 in OOC games on the road under coach Mike Stoops, now in his 6Th season in Tucson. This will be Wildcats' sophomore Matt Scott's first road test as a starter. Junior RB Nic Grigsby enters the game #2 in the nation in rushing, but the Wildcats best offensive player, TE junior Rob Gronkowski, is projected out. He has missed all three game thus far and this could be the first game that his absence is really missed. This should be a classic Big Ten-Pac Ten match up, like last week's USC @ Ohio State, this should be a close game at the end. Special teams could play a big role down the stretch. The Hawkeyes hold on and win @ Kinnick by less than a touchdown.

peace